The flu returned to Europe at a faster rate than expected this winter after almost disappearing last year, which raised fears of a long-term "double epidemic" with the Corona virus, and amid some doubts about the effectiveness of flu vaccines.
In its report on Monday, January 17, 2022, Reuters indicated that the closure procedures, the placement of masks, and social distancing, which became the norm in Europe during the outbreak of the Corona virus, temporarily eliminated during the last winter the influenza virus that kills nearly 650,000 people globally annually. , according to European Union data.
Less strict measures to tackle the Corona virus
But the situation has now changed, as some countries have begun to adopt less stringent measures to combat the Corona virus, thanks to the spread of vaccines.
Data from the European Center for Disease Control and Prevention and the World Health Organization showed that since mid-December 2021, the number of influenza cases in intensive care units increased gradually, reaching 43 cases in the last week of the year.
The agency said that this number of infections is much lower than pre-pandemic levels, as the number of influenza cases in intensive care units exceeded 400 cases in the same period in 2018, for example.
But the data shows a significant increase in the number of cases compared to last year, when there was one case of influenza in the intensive care unit in the whole month of December.
Mutant "more dangerous"!
While some expect that the Omicron variant will be a natural vaccine that achieves herd immunity for the world , and turns Corona into a regular flu, while others warn that a widespread outbreak of “Omicron” may lead to a more dangerous mutation.
Omicron is almost certain to lead to less severe cases of the disease, but it is much more contagious than any version of the virus so far, and it can evade some immune protection either from vaccines or previous infections.
Omicron may be 25 to 50% more transmissible than the delta variant, according to some estimates. Delta is 50% more transmissible than the alpha variant, which is itself 50% more transmissible than the original version of the coronavirus, Vox reports.
This means that the disease is spreading at a very high speed, as we see now, but with fewer deaths and hospitalizations than before, but it may also mean that there can be an increase in the number of hospital admissions and even deaths due to the increase in the number of injured, although the burdens on health systems In countries where the variant has so far spread less than the most severe waves of the Corona virus.
Does Omicron provide herd immunity?
There is a theory espoused by some epidemiologists around the world, that the Omicron mutant will eliminate the Corona epidemic, which has exhausted the world and caused millions of deaths, in addition to billions of dollars in economic losses around the world.
“Herd immunity” is a scientific term describing the point at which a population is protected from disease, either by a sufficient number of people who are vaccinated or by people who have developed antibodies through previous infection with the disease, and the concept of herd immunity assumes that reaching this state leads to Slowing the spread of the disease in the community.
While the estimates of the percentage required to achieve herd immunity for the first strains of the Corona virus, it is the availability of antibodies in 70% of the population of any community, but this percentage is subject to increase in the more infectious strains such as Omicron.