It is still too early to judge the success of the Corona vaccination campaigns in reducing the spread of the disease, especially since the vaccination campaigns have just begun, but there may be initial indications of the extent of the successes of vaccines that may appear from some countries that have gone a greater way than others in these campaigns.
With the faltering start of the largest vaccination campaign in history , the impact of COVID-19 vaccines on the epidemic will depend on several factors. Factors such as the effectiveness of vaccines include; How quickly it can be approved, manufactured and delivered; And how many people have been vaccinated, according to the World Health Organization ( WHO) .
But COVID-19 vaccines are supposed to drastically reduce the rate of new cases, hospitalizations and deaths, provided enough people get vaccinated.
It is believed that any country needs to vaccinate about three-quarters of the population before it can safely begin easing restrictions and closures, given how easily COVID-19 spreads among people, said Megan Fitzpatrick, assistant professor and designer of infectious disease transmission at the University of Maryland, USA, author of the study About vaccination campaigns.
But he believes that if 41% of the population is vaccinated, there may be some positive results, as reaching this percentage will greatly reduce the number of cases, the need for treatment, and even deaths from the Corona virus.
The two main candidate vaccines for this success, on which the study was conducted, are the American company Moderna and the other, the one produced by Pfizer of America and BioNTech - Germany, and they are more than 94% effective in preventing COVID-19, according to early analyzes.
Fitzpatrick said that this level of effectiveness "is much higher than what was expected a year before the epidemic," and added: "What our research confirms is that these unusually high-potency vaccines have the potential to have a tremendous effect."
According to the study, the most dramatic decline will occur in people aged 65 or over, who will see a decrease of 83% to 90% in probable cases.
Noting that the study adopts the model based on not vaccinating anyone under the age of 18 years, with priority given to medical staff, the elderly and patients.
In other words, according to the scenario adopted by the study, while the elderly will receive direct protection through vaccination campaigns with the vaccine, young people and children will be indirectly protected while increasing immunity in society as a whole, Fitzpatrick said.
But far from theorizing, have vaccines worked on Earth?
The countries that top the list of the highest per capita vaccines per capita are Israel (24%), Bahrain (16.8%), the United Arab Emirates (8.3%) and the United Kingdom (5.3%), according to figures released on January 19 and 20, 2020.
To that date, 40 million doses of COVID-19 vaccines have been administered, of which 12 million have been in the United States, followed by 10 million in China, and 4 million in the United Kingdom, according to Our World in Data, a UK-based nonprofit organization that tracks vaccine statistics.
As compared to 2 million people who received the first dose of vaccines in Israel , until (January 18, 2020), which is 4.7% of the total doses in the world, while the population of Israel is 0.11% of the world's population, meaning that its percentage of vaccines is About 42 times its proportion of the world's population.
This was achieved thanks to a deal between Tel Aviv and the giant American pharmaceutical company, Pfizer, that led to the Hebrew state obtaining a large stock of doses of the Coronavirus vaccine in exchange for providing the company with quick data on the impact of the product by testing it on its citizens.
The answer comes from the country that leads the vaccination campaigns
With Israel leading the vaccination campaigns with the Corona vaccine in the world, it can provide practical indicators on the effectiveness of vaccines in reducing the spread of the disease.
Indeed, Israel is seeing a 60% decrease in hospitalizations aged 60 and over after 3 weeks after the first dose, according to a report published on the Times of Israel website .
The full effects of the Pfizer doses begin about a month after receiving them, but data from Israel show that there has been a sharp drop in infections even before this date.
The Israel Healthcare Provider indicated that vaccinations quickly led to a reduction in severe cases of COVID-19 among the most vulnerable members of society.
McCabe's health care services reported earlier this month that they had witnessed a 60% decrease in coronavirus cases, three weeks after the first shot was given.
But it was not clear whether the benefits were evenly distributed between those with a tendency to have a mild infection and those who are likely to develop severe disease.
Now McCabe has begun answering the question that hospitals and health ministers around the world are asking with concern, how quickly are the benefits of vaccination realized?
Indeed, McCabe's latest data indicates a rapid decline in hospital admissions after vaccination.
He found that hospitalizations began to drop sharply from day 18 after patients received their first dose.
McCabe revealed, after monitoring 50,777 patients, that by the 23rd day of receiving the first dose, that is, two days after the second dose, there is a 60% decrease in hospitals among vaccinated people over the age of 60.
"Only by getting an insight into hospitalizations among elderly people who have been vaccinated is this data valuable," says Prof. Galia Rahaf.
However, Galia cautioned that some of the decrease could be due to the tendency of newly vaccinated people to adhere to lockdown rules, leading to a reduction in infection and hospitalization.
The vaccination campaigns with other Corona vaccines may be less successful than Israel, but they will remain a milestone
It remains too early to judge the success of the vaccination campaigns in Israel.
It should also be noted that the vaccination campaigns in Israel depend on the Pfizer vaccine, which is the most expensive of all vaccines, which is believed to be the most effective, and in most cases no country in the world will provide most of its people this expensive vaccine, even the United States, which in addition to the Pfizer vaccine depends on the vaccine Moderna is close to potency, but less expensive.
As with other vaccines, the Coronavirus vaccine will not be 100% effective for everyone, and there is no guarantee that it will give complete protection.
But influenza vaccines are 50% effective on average for the general population (that is, inferior to the least effective Corona vaccines), and yet they are still effective in reducing the number of hospitalizations and serious influenza complications.
If a person becomes infected with Coronavirus after vaccination, the virus is likely to be less severe and will recover faster than if he had not received the vaccine . Getting the vaccine will also reduce the risk of hospitalization.
Vaccination may also prevent its recipient from spreading the virus to other people, although there is no evidence of this yet.